This weekend signals a literal change of seasons. Tonight, we will turn our clocks ahead one hour to Daylight Saving Time. On Monday, New Brunswick will remove its mandatory order and drop remaining public health restrictions after a two-year dance with COVID-19.
This ‘spring ahead’ comes as physical, emotional, psychological, and economic relief. As a province, we are weary of the pandemic fight, beaten down after two years riding a public health roller coaster, the lows of lockdowns followed by brief highs of freedom. We all want to get off this ride and plant our feet firmly on the ground again.
If this weekend truly marks the transition from pandemic to endemic, of a return to whatever normal now means, it is important to understand that for business, this shift will not be as quick as adjusting the time on a clock or government removing an order with the stroke of a pen.
For business, springing ahead comes with a mix of excitement, anticipation, trepidation, and a real fear of the unknown.
Some economic sectors have withstood the past two years well: construction, insurance, professional services. Others have barely hung on: restaurants, hotels, tourism operators, event venues, retail.
There are signs of economic life as we lift the veil on two years of COVID. The Conference Board of Canada forecasts real GDP growth of 2.4 per cent in New Brunswick in 2022. Statistics Canada shows employment is now above pre-pandemic levels. Our population is growing at a rate we have not seen since the early 1970s, immigration is returning, retail spending is up, business and consumer confidence is slowly building.
Yet, hesitancy gnaws at the roots of nascent hope. Will the removal of restrictions this week stick? Is this a real economic restart or a repeat of the false start we experienced last summer when New Brunswick pre-emptively removed restrictions?
We can expect business recovery to be bumpy for the next two years; it will not be smooth or linear as we exit the pandemic. With restaurants now able to serve at 100 per cent capacity, event venues able to invite people back for big concerts, festivals scheduled, sports and children’s activities on again, there is hope of a Spring awakening.
But for airports that have operated at 10 to 20 per cent passenger capacity for much of the last two years, for hotels that drastically cut back staff as they managed the handful of rooms occupied on good days, normal is months or even years away.
The economic impact of COVID-19 has been uneven and unfair. As our business communities as a whole struggle to adjust to the return to normal, it is important that both government and the public understand that reopening and recovery are not synonymous. For many, losses are indeed lost forever; for others, it will take years to return to prior profit levels.
On the eve of the removal of the mandatory order, there is still some disagreement among business about the speed of dropping restrictions.
Business owners and managers, their employees and their customers are on a broad spectrum of comfort with ending mandatory masks and proof of vaccination policies. We believe it was wise for Premier Blaine Higgs to confirm that businesses have the right to enforce their own entry rules, even if government is dropping mandatory practices. We doubt many owners will ask for proof of vaccination or wearing of masks, but if they do out of concern for their employees and clientele, those decisions should be respected.
They have that right. If you do not like the policy, you have the right to take your money elsewhere.
As we re-engage, what are the new rules? Has etiquette in the workplace changed? Will traditional in- person business meetings return? What about business travel? How do business owners balance employee and customer safety while they work to re-establish relationships with customers who may have stayed away since March 2020?
The return of Daylight-Saving Time has always been one of my favourite weekends. There is something re-energizing about seeing the sun linger in the sky into early evening. Let’s hope this weekend of reopening marks the dawn of a lasting economic recovery that balances caution with commerce.
By John Wishart